Stock markets facing potential high-volatility week: All eyes on RBI, Q1 results, Trump tariffs — what analysts say on key drivers

The stock markets are set for action-packed week, with investor focus locked on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision, Q1 earnings from key companies, and evolving developments around US tariffs. According to market observers, foreign investor activity and global equity trends will also steer sentiment, with added volatility from geopolitical and macroeconomic triggers.Markets were under pressure last week due to persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and renewed trade tensions. The Sensex declined 863.18 points or 1.05 per cent, and the Nifty shed 271.65 points or 1.09 per cent over the week. On Friday alone, the Sensex fell 585.67 points to 80,599.91, while the Nifty dropped 203 points to 24,565.35, marking a dissapointing end to the week. “All eyes will be on the RBI’s monetary policy on August 6, particularly its commentary on inflation, liquidity, and the growth outlook,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, quoted by news agency PTI. “Additionally, earnings from marquee names like Bharti Airtel, DLF, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, SBI and LIC will shape sectoral momentum,’ he further said.Also read: India faces $9–11 billion oil bill spike- Forced pivot from Russian crude after Trump’s ‘penalty’ could hit margins Apart from the RBI, key macro triggers this week include HSBC’s services and composite PMI data, oil price fluctuations, and any fresh signals from US-India trade negotiations.“Heightened global and domestic volatility makes the upcoming RBI policy meet a key event,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart. He added that results from several Nifty heavyweights—Adani Ports, Airtel, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Trent, Titan, SBI and Tata Motors- could drive stock-specific action. The abrupt announcement by US President Donald Trump of a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, along with a separate penalty targeting India’s energy and defence trade with Russia, has dented short-term sentiment. However, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services said, “Despite the uncertainty, the broader sentiment suggests that India and the US may reach an agreement post-negotiations,” adding, “Stable FPI flows could return once clarity emerges.”Also read: Rs 1.35 lakh crore wipeout: Seven of top 10 firms lose in market value; TCS sees biggest decline Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, echoed that view, adding that mixed Q1 earnings and ongoing FII outflows could keep the markets range-bound in the near term. “Macro cues like RBI and Bank of England rate decisions and services PMI prints for the US and India will also be closely tracked,” he said.